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Cliodinâmica e Psicohistória

Trilogia da Fundação – Isaac Asimov

NATURE | NEWS FEATURE

Human cycles: History as science

Advocates of ‘cliodynamics’ say that they can use scientific methods to illuminate the past. But historians are not so sure.

SOURCE: REF. 1

Sometimes, history really does seem to repeat itself. After the US Civil War, for example, a wave of urban violence fuelled by ethnic and class resentment swept across the country, peaking in about 1870. Internal strife spiked again in around 1920, when race riots, workers’ strikes and a surge of anti-Communist feeling led many people to think that revolution was imminent. And in around 1970, unrest crested once more, with violent student demonstrations, political assassinations, riots and terrorism (see ‘Cycles of violence’).

To Peter Turchin, who studies population dynamics at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, the appearance of three peaks of political instability at roughly 50-year intervals is not a coincidence. For the past 15 years, Turchin has been taking the mathematical techniques that once allowed him to track predator–prey cycles in forest ecosystems, and applying them to human history. He has analysed historical records on economic activity, demographic trends and outbursts of violence in the United States, and has come to the conclusion that a new wave of internal strife is already on its way1. The peak should occur in about 2020, he says, and will probably be at least as high as the one in around 1970. “I hope it won’t be as bad as 1870,” he adds. Read more [+]

Mecânica Quântica e Livre-Arbítrio

Minha filha Juliana (15) e sua amiga Amanda (16) vão iniciar seu projeto de iniciação científica no laboratório SISNE (Sistemas Neurais) do Departamento de Física da FFCLRP – USP. Tudo o que posso dizer para o momento é que o experimento tem a ver com uma condição necessária (mas não suficiente) para que insetos, aracnídeos, crustáceos e coleópteros tenham livre-arbítrio. O biólogo Wagner Ferreira dos Santos da FFCLRP me disse que acredita que mesmo bactérias quimiotáticas tenham algum tipo de livre-arbítrio e que ele delimitaria a linha entre autômatos estocásticos e organismos com livre-arbítrio na linha que separa vírus de bactérias.

Por condição necessária para o livre arbítrio estamos usando uma definição operacional onde uma situação de escolha entre duas trajetórias pelo organismo só possa ser modelada por um processo não-Markoviano.

Quantum Entanglement Can be a Measure of Free Will

The same experiments that reveal the nature of entanglement can also be interpreted as a measure of free will, say researchers

The nature of quantum mechanics has forced researchers to reconsider their own role in the process of science. Gone is the Victorian idea that measurement is objective and absolute. Today, we know that in the quantum world, it is impossible to separate the measured from the measurer. But exactly what role measurement plays in the universe, we have yet to fathom.

One intriguing idea is that certain kinds of experiments can tease apart the nature of measurement. And one particularly important class of experiment involves quantum entanglement, the hugely puzzling phenomenon in which widely separated objects share the same existence (or in scientific terms, are described by the same wave function).

Imagine two particles that are entangled in this way. Before any measurement takes place, these particles are in a superposition of states. Then a measurement on one immediately influences the other, somehow determining the outcome of a measurement on it.

Many experiments have shown that this “influence” happens as close to instantaneously as it is possible to measure and certainly cannot be mediated by any lightspeed signal. The same experiments also rule out any hidden correlation between the particles in which the outcome of any measurement is agreed upon in advance. Imagine, for example, some unseen hand that forces experimenters to unknowingly carry out measurements that always make it look as if this spooky action at a distance was taking place.

Today, Jonathan Barrett from the University of Bristol and Nicolas Gisin from the University of Geneva provide us with an interesting new take on this problem. They assume that entanglement does occur as quantum mechanics proscribes and then ask how much free will an experimenter must have to rule out the possibility of hidden interference.

The answer is curious. Barret and Gisin prove that if there is any information shared by the experimenters and the particles they are to measure, then entanglement can be explained by some kind of hidden process that is deterministic.

In practical terms, this means that there can be no shared information between the random number generators that determine the parameters of the experiments to be made, and the particles to be measured.

But the same also holds true for the experimenters themselves. It means there can be no information shared between them and the particles to be measured either. In other words, they must have completely free will.

In fact, if an experimenter lacks even a single bit of free will then quantum mechanics can be explained in terms of hidden variables. Conversely, if we accept the veracity of quantum mechanics, then we are able to place a bound on the nature of free will.

That’s an interesting way of stating the problem of entanglement and suggests a number of promising, related conundrums: what of systems that are partially entangled and others in which more than two particle become entangled.

Free will never looked so fascinating.

Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1008.3612: How Much Free Will Is Needed To Demonstrate Nonlocality?

Poema caóticos criados pelo Google Translator

O original:
Em veias tenho teu nome
Não capturo
És o meu bolso, minha rocha
Guardo-te grão
Aguardo-te garrafa
Cresces no sopro da água
Crias raízes
Te firmas no ar
Tens garras suspensas, extensas
Tens o meu nome
Não capturo

Eu tenho as veias em seu nome
Ele não captura
Você é o meu bolso, rock meu
Você manter grão
Aguardo você garrafa
Crescendo na bica de água
raízes bebê
Você empresas no ar
Você tem garras de suspensão, extensa
Você tem meu nome
Ele não captura

A minha versão, usando também as alternativas de tradução do GOOGLE:

Na borda do Caos

Eu tenho as veias em seu nome
Mas você não capta
Que também está no meu bolso, pedra minha
Preciosa.

Que você continue plantando grãos.
Espero que você seja frasco
Crescendo na bica de água
criando raízes de criança
Firmando-se nos ares
Você usa suas unhas, extensas

Nas minhas costas,

Você tem o meu nome
Mas você não capta